Evidence

Every forecast has a receipt.

The evidence ledger is the backbone of trust. Every published forecast links to an immutable chain: the data that went in, the model that ran, the gates that checked it, and the exact output that was published.

Prediction ledger

Append-only record of every published forecast. Entries are never deleted or modified.

Forecast IDeq_fcst_20260313_0300
HazardEarthquake
Issued2026-03-13 03:00 UTC
Probability27.4% (21.2–33.0)
Modelhp-etas-v3.2.1
Gatepass
Provenance IDprov_eq_20260313_0300_a3f8
Detail Replay
Forecast IDhu_fcst_20260313_0300
HazardHurricane RI
Issued2026-03-13 03:00 UTC
Probability41.8% (35.0–48.1)
Modelhp-hurricane-ri-v8.1
Gatepass
Provenance IDprov_hu_20260313_0300_d4b1
Detail Replay
Forecast IDto_fcst_20260313_0300
HazardTornado
Issued2026-03-13 03:00 UTC
Probability18.6% (14.8–22.9)
Modelhp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2
Gatedegrade
Provenance IDprov_to_20260313_0300_f290
Detail Replay
Download full ledger (JSON)

Provenance envelopes

Each forecast has a cryptographic envelope proving exactly what data and computation produced it. Envelopes include input/output hashes, source references, and transform chain.

Envelope: prov_eq_20260313_0300_a3f8

Trace IDtrace_eq_20260313_0300
Input hash (SHA-256)5c88a0e1..3f27b9d4
Output hash (SHA-256)d920f4c3..81e0a567
SourcesUSGS ANSS ComCat (2026-03-13T02:54Z)
Transformscatalog_filter → feature_extract → hp-etas-v3.2.1 → calibrate → gate_check
Signed at2026-03-13 03:00:12 UTC

Envelope: prov_hu_20260313_0300_d4b1

Trace IDtrace_hu_20260313_0300
Input hash (SHA-256)8f12c3d4..a9b7e601
Output hash (SHA-256)3e78f1a2..c405d912
SourcesGFS 06Z, NHC Advisory #14, SHIPS 02:30Z
Transformsgfs_extract → ships_merge → hp-hurricane-ri-v8.1 → calibrate → gate_check
Signed at2026-03-13 03:00:14 UTC

Envelope: prov_to_20260313_0300_f290

Trace IDtrace_to_20260313_0300
Input hash (SHA-256)c3a1b2d4..e8f09712
Output hash (SHA-256)12d4f8a0..b3c7e190
SourcesSPC mesoanalysis (02:12Z, stale), RAP 03Z, MRMS 02:50Z
Transformsspc_extract → rap_merge → hp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 → calibrate → gate_check(degrade)
Signed at2026-03-13 03:00:18 UTC
Download all envelopes (JSON)

Gate decision ledger

Every forecast passes through 13 hard gates before publication. Here are the latest decisions.

Decision IDHazardResultWarningsTime
gate_eq_20260313_0300_001 Earthquake pass None 03:00:11 UTC
gate_hu_20260313_0300_001 Hurricane RI pass None 03:00:13 UTC
gate_to_20260313_0300_001 Tornado degrade G1: SPC feed latency 48 min > 45 min threshold 03:00:17 UTC
Download gate decisions (JSON)

Replay index

Every forecast can be replayed deterministically. Download the frozen input artifact, run it through the pinned model version, and verify you get the same output hash.

Forecast IDHazardInput hashOutput hashArtifact
eq_fcst_20260313_0300 Earthquake 5c88a0e1.. d920f4c3.. Download
hu_fcst_20260313_0300 Hurricane RI 8f12c3d4.. 3e78f1a2.. Download
to_fcst_20260313_0300 Tornado c3a1b2d4.. 12d4f8a0.. Download
Download replay index (JSON)

Export options

Download evidence artifacts in your preferred format.

Prediction ledger

JSON

Provenance envelopes

JSON

Gate decisions

JSON

Chain integrity

The evidence chain is verified every publish cycle. Here is the current integrity status.

Intact
Chain status
1,119
Total ledger entries
100%
Provenance coverage
0
Hash mismatches