Live seismic intelligence

Global Earthquake Monitor

30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.

Global seismic activity map

2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.

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Seismic zone Plate boundary Your location
Independent hazard intelligence platform. Always follow official USGS and national geological survey guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateWed, 23 Sep 2026 21:00:00 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells81 cells scored
Events (30 d)1998 M2.5+

Top risk cells by seismic criticality

2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.

115S, 175WCritical51.4% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active15S, 175WCritical6 events in-window | Mmax 5.7 | Rate 0.52x | S/Gamma 16.3351.4%
Threat brief

Grid cell 15S, 175W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.3x.

Critical
51.4%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-100.0%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 16.3 Mmax 5.7 in-window
Recent events6Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.7Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.52xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 15S, 175W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.3x. The current window contains 6 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.7.

Critical
51.4%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.041
b-value trend0.0481
Correlation length76.1 km
Corr. length trend-0.50 km/month
Rate acceleration0.52x
IET delta-AIC229.41
S / Gamma16.332
Days to criticality21
Depth trend-1.98 km
Spatial concentration75.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 51.4% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 6 recent events, max magnitude 5.7.
219S, 177WCritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active19S, 177WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 4.9 | Rate 0.86x | S/Gamma 15.555.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 19S, 177W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.5 Corr. length trend -1.7 km/mo Mmax 4.9 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.9Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.86xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 19S, 177W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.9.

Critical
5.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.564
b-value trend-0.1824
Correlation length50.4 km
Corr. length trend-1.71 km/month
Rate acceleration0.86x
IET delta-AIC447.05
S / Gamma15.549
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-62.45 km
Spatial concentration72.2 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 4.9.
37S, 155ECritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active7S, 155ECritical5 events in-window | Mmax 4.7 | Rate 1.85x | S/Gamma 14.855.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 7S, 155E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active and loading exceeds healing by 14.8x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.9x S/Gamma 14.8 Corr. length trend -7.2 km/mo Mmax 4.7 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.7Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.85xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 7S, 155E

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active and loading exceeds healing by 14.8x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.7.

Critical
5.5%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length78.1 km
Corr. length trend-7.19 km/month
Rate acceleration1.85x
IET delta-AIC87.62
S / Gamma14.848
Days to criticality1792
Depth trend-10.56 km
Spatial concentration76.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 4.7.
47S, 127ECritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active7S, 127ECritical7 events in-window | Mmax 4.8 | Rate 0.91x | S/Gamma 15.525.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 7S, 127E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.5 Corr. length trend +1.5 km/mo Mmax 4.8 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.91xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 7S, 127E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.8.

Critical
5.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.252
b-value trend--
Correlation length60.1 km
Corr. length trend1.53 km/month
Rate acceleration0.91x
IET delta-AIC161.56
S / Gamma15.517
Days to criticality20
Depth trend-18.10 km
Spatial concentration79.1 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 4.8.
521S, 69WCritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active21S, 69WCritical12 events in-window | Mmax 4.7 | Rate 0.86x | S/Gamma 15.585.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.6 Corr. length trend -2.9 km/mo Mmax 4.7 in-window
Recent events12Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.7Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.86xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x. The current window contains 12 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.7.

Critical
5.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.134
b-value trend0.0811
Correlation length66.8 km
Corr. length trend-2.90 km/month
Rate acceleration0.86x
IET delta-AIC224.28
S / Gamma15.577
Days to criticality2098
Depth trend5.72 km
Spatial concentration84.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 12 recent events, max magnitude 4.7.
613S, 167ECritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active13S, 167ECritical6 events in-window | Mmax 4.9 | Rate 1.10x | S/Gamma 16.025.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 13S, 167E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.0x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 16.0 Corr. length trend -4.8 km/mo Mmax 4.9 in-window
Recent events6Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.9Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.10xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 13S, 167E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 16.0x. The current window contains 6 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.9.

Critical
5.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.121
b-value trend0.1380
Correlation length72.6 km
Corr. length trend-4.83 km/month
Rate acceleration1.10x
IET delta-AIC183.47
S / Gamma16.025
Days to criticality2097
Depth trend40.33 km
Spatial concentration80.0 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 6 recent events, max magnitude 4.9.
721S, 169ECritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active21S, 169ECritical7 events in-window | Mmax 5.4 | Rate 1.84x | S/Gamma 15.845.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 169E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.8x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.8x S/Gamma 15.8 Corr. length trend -1.3 km/mo Mmax 5.4 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.84xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 169E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.8x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.4.

Critical
5.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length74.2 km
Corr. length trend-1.30 km/month
Rate acceleration1.84x
IET delta-AIC183.99
S / Gamma15.844
Days to criticality2091
Depth trend-25.21 km
Spatial concentration74.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 5.4.
819S, 169ECritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active19S, 169ECritical5 events in-window | Mmax 5.2 | Rate 1.49x | S/Gamma 15.465.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 19S, 169E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.5x S/Gamma 15.5 Corr. length trend -6.9 km/mo Mmax 5.2 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.2Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.49xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 19S, 169E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.2.

Critical
5.5%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.219
b-value trend--
Correlation length89.3 km
Corr. length trend-6.86 km/month
Rate acceleration1.49x
IET delta-AIC177.02
S / Gamma15.460
Days to criticality1790
Depth trend-33.14 km
Spatial concentration64.1 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 5.2.
923S, 69WCritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active23S, 69WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 4.8 | Rate 0.92x | S/Gamma 15.235.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 23S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.2x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.2 Mmax 4.8 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.92xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 23S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.2x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.8.

Critical
5.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend0.2290
Correlation length41.1 km
Corr. length trend-0.45 km/month
Rate acceleration0.92x
IET delta-AIC303.46
S / Gamma15.227
Days to criticality21
Depth trend9.76 km
Spatial concentration64.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 4.8.
105N, 125ECritical5.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active5N, 125ECritical11 events in-window | Mmax 5.3 | Rate 1.00x | S/Gamma 15.695.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 5N, 125E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x.

Critical
5.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 5.5%-5.5%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.7 Corr. length trend +4.5 km/mo Mmax 5.3 in-window
Recent events11Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.00xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 5N, 125E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x. The current window contains 11 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.3.

Critical
5.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.148
b-value trend-0.1153
Correlation length41.4 km
Corr. length trend4.55 km/month
Rate acceleration1.00x
IET delta-AIC399.56
S / Gamma15.690
Days to criticality20
Depth trend-16.74 km
Spatial concentration85.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 5.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 11 recent events, max magnitude 5.3.

Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics

15S, 175W -- Coherence fields

51.4%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days) (90% band: 5.5%-100.0%)
b-value (GR)1.0410
Correlation length (km)76.1000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)-0.5000
Rate acceleration0.5200
IET delta-AIC229.4100
S / Gamma16.3320
tau (coherence field)2.9849
grad(tau)1.3107
Days to criticality20.8000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met2 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)YES
b-value depressed (<0.85)no
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)no
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES

Cell statistics

Location15S, 175W
Events (30 days)6
Max magnitudeM5.7
b-value trend0.0481
Depth trend-1.98 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0

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