Live seismic intelligence

Global Earthquake Monitor

30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.

Global seismic activity map

2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.

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Seismic zone Plate boundary Your location
Independent hazard intelligence platform. Always follow official USGS and national geological survey guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateSat, 30 May 2026 18:00:00 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells87 cells scored
Events (30 d)1768 M2.5+

Top risk cells by seismic criticality

2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.

121S, 69WCritical81.4% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active21S, 69WCritical10 events in-window | Mmax 4.8 | Rate 1.08x | S/Gamma 15.3281.4%
Threat brief

Grid cell 21S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.3x.

Critical
81.4%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.3 Corr. length trend -4.0 km/mo Mmax 4.8 in-window
Recent events10Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.08xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 21S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.3x. The current window contains 10 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.8.

Critical
81.4%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.081
b-value trend-0.0508
Correlation length73.0 km
Corr. length trend-4.00 km/month
Rate acceleration1.08x
IET delta-AIC225.71
S / Gamma15.317
Days to criticality2100
Depth trend-11.47 km
Spatial concentration83.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 81.4% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 10 recent events, max magnitude 4.8.
225S, 67WCritical75.5% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active25S, 67WCritical7 events in-window | Mmax 4.7 | Rate 0.80x | S/Gamma 15.0075.5%
Threat brief

Grid cell 25S, 67W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.0x.

Critical
75.5%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.0 Corr. length trend +1.7 km/mo Mmax 4.7 in-window
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.7Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.80xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 25S, 67W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.0x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.7.

Critical
75.5%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.662
b-value trend--
Correlation length29.0 km
Corr. length trend1.67 km/month
Rate acceleration0.80x
IET delta-AIC149.22
S / Gamma15.000
Days to criticality67
Depth trend14.88 km
Spatial concentration53.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 75.5% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 4.7.
323S, 67WCritical73.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active23S, 67WCritical8 events in-window | Mmax 4.8 | Rate 0.85x | S/Gamma 15.5073.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 23S, 67W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x.

Critical
73.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.5 Corr. length trend +1.1 km/mo Mmax 4.8 in-window
Recent events8Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.85xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 23S, 67W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.5x. The current window contains 8 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.8.

Critical
73.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.503
b-value trend-0.0509
Correlation length36.3 km
Corr. length trend1.07 km/month
Rate acceleration0.85x
IET delta-AIC256.49
S / Gamma15.501
Days to criticality20
Depth trend-0.72 km
Spatial concentration43.8 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 73.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 8 recent events, max magnitude 4.8.
451N, 179WCritical72.9% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active51N, 179WCritical38 events in-window | Mmax 4.1 | Rate 1.28x | S/Gamma 13.5572.9%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 179W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.62, and loading exceeds healing by 13.6x.

Critical
72.9%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.3x b-value 0.62 S/Gamma 13.6 Corr. length trend -1.9 km/mo
Recent events38Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.1Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.28xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 179W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.62, and loading exceeds healing by 13.6x. The current window contains 38 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.1.

Critical
72.9%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.616
b-value trend-0.0288
Correlation length76.9 km
Corr. length trend-1.88 km/month
Rate acceleration1.28x
IET delta-AIC716.33
S / Gamma13.554
Days to criticality2100
Depth trend-12.31 km
Spatial concentration119.7 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • b-value depressed
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 72.9% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 38 recent events, max magnitude 4.1.
59N, 85WCritical72.2% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active9N, 85WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 4.9 | Rate 1.78x | S/Gamma 14.1272.2%
Threat brief

Grid cell 9N, 85W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.1x.

Critical
72.2%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.8x S/Gamma 14.1 Corr. length trend -1.4 km/mo Mmax 4.9 in-window
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.9Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.78xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 9N, 85W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 14.1x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.9.

Critical
72.2%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length44.0 km
Corr. length trend-1.36 km/month
Rate acceleration1.78x
IET delta-AIC55.06
S / Gamma14.121
Days to criticality-3
Depth trend-9.87 km
Spatial concentration80.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 72.2% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 4.9.
651N, 177WCritical70.8% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active51N, 177WCritical44 events in-window | Mmax 3.8 | Rate 1.33x | S/Gamma 13.5470.8%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 177W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.65, and loading exceeds healing by 13.5x.

Critical
70.8%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.3x b-value 0.65 S/Gamma 13.5 Corr. length trend -2.5 km/mo
Recent events44Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.33xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 177W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.65, and loading exceeds healing by 13.5x. The current window contains 44 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.8.

Critical
70.8%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.652
b-value trend-0.0176
Correlation length85.8 km
Corr. length trend-2.48 km/month
Rate acceleration1.33x
IET delta-AIC743.66
S / Gamma13.545
Days to criticality2100
Depth trend-8.63 km
Spatial concentration152.1 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • b-value depressed
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 70.8% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 44 recent events, max magnitude 3.8.
737N, 121WCritical70.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active37N, 121WCritical10 events in-window | Mmax 3.6 | Rate 0.87x | S/Gamma 12.6670.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 37N, 121W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 12.7x.

Critical
70.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions b-value 0.99 S/Gamma 12.7
Recent events10Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.6Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.87xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 37N, 121W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 12.7x. The current window contains 10 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.6.

Critical
70.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.987
b-value trend0.0951
Correlation length2.3 km
Corr. length trend-0.32 km/month
Rate acceleration0.87x
IET delta-AIC434.75
S / Gamma12.656
Days to criticality20
Depth trend0.31 km
Spatial concentration77.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 70.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 10 recent events, max magnitude 3.6.
823S, 69WCritical70.1% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active23S, 69WCritical16 events in-window | Mmax 6.9 | Rate 0.84x | S/Gamma 15.1670.1%
Threat brief

Grid cell 23S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.2x.

Critical
70.1%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.2 Corr. length trend +1.9 km/mo Mmax 6.9 in-window
Recent events16Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM6.9Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.84xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 23S, 69W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.2x. The current window contains 16 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 6.9.

Critical
70.1%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.138
b-value trend0.2197
Correlation length39.8 km
Corr. length trend1.87 km/month
Rate acceleration0.84x
IET delta-AIC286.91
S / Gamma15.159
Days to criticality74
Depth trend-1.93 km
Spatial concentration63.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 70.1% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 16 recent events, max magnitude 6.9.
935N, 119WCritical69.1% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active35N, 119WCritical5 events in-window | Mmax 3.1 | Rate 0.83x | S/Gamma 12.2969.1%
Threat brief

Grid cell 35N, 119W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 12.3x.

Critical
69.1%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions b-value 0.99 S/Gamma 12.3
Recent events5Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.1Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.83xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 35N, 119W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 12.3x. The current window contains 5 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.1.

Critical
69.1%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.988
b-value trend0.0289
Correlation length3.2 km
Corr. length trend-0.33 km/month
Rate acceleration0.83x
IET delta-AIC400.06
S / Gamma12.288
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-0.86 km
Spatial concentration76.0 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 69.1% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 5 recent events, max magnitude 3.1.
1035N, 117WCritical68.0% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active35N, 117WCritical12 events in-window | Mmax 3.4 | Rate 1.46x | S/Gamma 13.2568.0%
Threat brief

Grid cell 35N, 117W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 13.2x.

Critical
68.0%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.5x b-value 0.90 S/Gamma 13.2
Recent events12Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.46xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 35N, 117W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 13.2x. The current window contains 12 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.4.

Critical
68.0%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.898
b-value trend-0.0181
Correlation length2.3 km
Corr. length trend-0.36 km/month
Rate acceleration1.46x
IET delta-AIC443.26
S / Gamma13.250
Days to criticality2099
Depth trend-0.52 km
Spatial concentration80.9 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 68.0% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 12 recent events, max magnitude 3.4.

Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics

21S, 69W -- Coherence fields

81.4%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days)
b-value (GR)1.0810
Correlation length (km)73.0000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)-4.0000
Rate acceleration1.0800
IET delta-AIC225.7100
S / Gamma15.3170
tau (coherence field)5.6511
grad(tau)0.4100
Days to criticality2099.5000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met1 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)no
b-value depressed (<0.85)no
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)no
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES

Cell statistics

Location21S, 69W
Events (30 days)10
Max magnitudeM4.8
b-value trend-0.0508
Depth trend-11.47 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0

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