Live seismic intelligence

Global Earthquake Monitor

30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.

Global seismic activity map

2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.

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Seismic zone Plate boundary Your location
Independent hazard intelligence platform. Always follow official USGS and national geological survey guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateMon, 27 Jul 2026 01:00:00 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells78 cells scored
Events (30 d)1923 M2.5+

Top risk cells by seismic criticality

2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.

115N, 93WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active15N, 93WCritical92 events in-window | Mmax 7.3 | Rate 3.20x | S/Gamma 15.893.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 15N, 93W

This cell stands out because event rate is 3.2x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 15.9x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 3.2x b-value 0.87 S/Gamma 15.9 Corr. length trend +1.9 km/mo
Recent events92Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM7.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration3.20xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 15N, 93W

This cell stands out because event rate is 3.2x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 15.9x. The current window contains 92 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 7.3.

Critical
3.7%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.874
b-value trend--
Correlation length42.1 km
Corr. length trend1.93 km/month
Rate acceleration3.20x
IET delta-AIC220.06
S / Gamma15.892
Days to criticality94
Depth trend-24.07 km
Spatial concentration94.1 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 92 recent events, max magnitude 7.3.
23S, 139ECritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active3S, 139ECritical13 events in-window | Mmax 5.4 | Rate 0.68x | S/Gamma 15.443.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 3S, 139E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.4x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.4 Mmax 5.4 in-window
Recent events13Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.4Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.68xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 3S, 139E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.4x. The current window contains 13 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.4.

Critical
3.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.107
b-value trend--
Correlation length26.9 km
Corr. length trend0.62 km/month
Rate acceleration0.68x
IET delta-AIC132.57
S / Gamma15.440
Days to criticality87
Depth trend-3.75 km
Spatial concentration75.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 13 recent events, max magnitude 5.4.
313S, 15WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active13S, 15WCritical9 events in-window | Mmax 5.3 | Rate 6.00x | S/Gamma 10.653.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 13S, 15W

This cell stands out because event rate is 6.0x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 10.7x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 6.0x S/Gamma 10.7 Mmax 5.3 in-window
Recent events9Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.3Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration6.00xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 13S, 15W

This cell stands out because event rate is 6.0x the local background and loading exceeds healing by 10.7x. The current window contains 9 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.3.

Critical
3.7%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length13.8 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration6.00x
IET delta-AIC--
S / Gamma10.655
Days to criticality--
Depth trend0.21 km
Spatial concentration47.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 9 recent events, max magnitude 5.3.
451N, 173WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active51N, 173WCritical32 events in-window | Mmax 5.8 | Rate 1.39x | S/Gamma 14.093.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 173W

This cell stands out because the b-value is compressed at 0.61 and loading exceeds healing by 14.1x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.4x b-value 0.61 S/Gamma 14.1 Corr. length trend -5.8 km/mo
Recent events32Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.8Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.39xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 173W

This cell stands out because the b-value is compressed at 0.61 and loading exceeds healing by 14.1x. The current window contains 32 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.8.

Critical
3.7%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.615
b-value trend0.1114
Correlation length13.7 km
Corr. length trend-5.83 km/month
Rate acceleration1.39x
IET delta-AIC958.00
S / Gamma14.088
Days to criticality2100
Depth trend-0.60 km
Spatial concentration70.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 32 recent events, max magnitude 5.8.
551N, 177WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 4/5 criticality signals active51N, 177WCritical45 events in-window | Mmax 5.0 | Rate 2.06x | S/Gamma 13.423.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 177W

This cell stands out because 4/5 singularity conditions are active, event rate is 2.1x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

4/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 2.1x b-value 0.63 S/Gamma 13.4 Mmax 5.0 in-window
Recent events45Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.06xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met4 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 177W

This cell stands out because 4/5 singularity conditions are active, event rate is 2.1x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63. The current window contains 45 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.0.

Critical
3.7%
4 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.632
b-value trend0.0694
Correlation length83.8 km
Corr. length trend-0.56 km/month
Rate acceleration2.06x
IET delta-AIC802.01
S / Gamma13.424
Days to criticality2100
Depth trend-8.45 km
Spatial concentration154.3 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 45 recent events, max magnitude 5.0.
637N, 71ECritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active37N, 71ECritical9 events in-window | Mmax 6.1 | Rate 0.72x | S/Gamma 15.663.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 37N, 71E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.7 Corr. length trend +7.1 km/mo Mmax 6.1 in-window
Recent events9Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM6.1Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.72xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 37N, 71E

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.7x. The current window contains 9 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 6.1.

Critical
3.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.080
b-value trend--
Correlation length28.1 km
Corr. length trend7.10 km/month
Rate acceleration0.72x
IET delta-AIC240.29
S / Gamma15.658
Days to criticality30
Depth trend44.00 km
Spatial concentration88.7 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 9 recent events, max magnitude 6.1.
733S, 179WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 1/5 criticality signals active33S, 179WCritical8 events in-window | Mmax 5.2 | Rate 0.63x | S/Gamma 15.613.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 33S, 179W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

1/5 criticality conditions S/Gamma 15.6 Corr. length trend -15.5 km/mo Mmax 5.2 in-window
Recent events8Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM5.2Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration0.63xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met1 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 33S, 179W

This cell stands out because loading exceeds healing by 15.6x. The current window contains 8 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 5.2.

Critical
3.7%
1 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value1.531
b-value trend-0.0167
Correlation length67.2 km
Corr. length trend-15.52 km/month
Rate acceleration0.63x
IET delta-AIC239.49
S / Gamma15.613
Days to criticality2096
Depth trend-15.51 km
Spatial concentration66.5 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedNO
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 8 recent events, max magnitude 5.2.
853N, 173WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 2/5 criticality signals active53N, 173WCritical7 events in-window | Mmax 3.9 | Rate 1.41x | S/Gamma 13.633.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 53N, 173W

This cell stands out because the b-value is compressed at 0.61 and loading exceeds healing by 13.6x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

2/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.4x b-value 0.61 S/Gamma 13.6 Corr. length trend -7.5 km/mo
Recent events7Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM3.9Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.41xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met2 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 53N, 173W

This cell stands out because the b-value is compressed at 0.61 and loading exceeds healing by 13.6x. The current window contains 7 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 3.9.

Critical
3.7%
2 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.608
b-value trend0.0997
Correlation length13.4 km
Corr. length trend-7.49 km/month
Rate acceleration1.41x
IET delta-AIC848.95
S / Gamma13.630
Days to criticality2100
Depth trend-0.15 km
Spatial concentration64.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingNO
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 7 recent events, max magnitude 3.9.
951N, 175WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 4/5 criticality signals active51N, 175WCritical32 events in-window | Mmax 4.0 | Rate 2.03x | S/Gamma 13.413.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 51N, 175W

This cell stands out because 4/5 singularity conditions are active, event rate is 2.0x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

4/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 2.0x b-value 0.63 S/Gamma 13.4 Mmax 4.0 in-window
Recent events32Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.0Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration2.03xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met4 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 51N, 175W

This cell stands out because 4/5 singularity conditions are active, event rate is 2.0x the local background, and the b-value is compressed at 0.63. The current window contains 32 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.0.

Critical
3.7%
4 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.629
b-value trend0.0656
Correlation length77.1 km
Corr. length trend-0.22 km/month
Rate acceleration2.03x
IET delta-AIC728.43
S / Gamma13.410
Days to criticality1
Depth trend-8.48 km
Spatial concentration76.4 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedYES
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • Correlation length elevated
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 32 recent events, max magnitude 4.0.
1053N, 167WCritical3.7% 30-day seismic watch probability with 3/5 criticality signals active53N, 167WCritical14 events in-window | Mmax 4.5 | Rate 1.52x | S/Gamma 13.123.7%
Threat brief

Grid cell 53N, 167W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.66, and loading exceeds healing by 13.1x.

Critical
3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability in the next 30 days (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
Operational posture

Treat this as a heightened watch signal: review continuity plans, confirm response contacts, and monitor USGS or the relevant regional seismological agency for escalation.

3/5 criticality conditions Rate acceleration 1.5x b-value 0.66 S/Gamma 13.1 Corr. length trend -1.8 km/mo
Recent events14Cataloged M2.5+ events in this cell
Largest eventM4.5Strongest event in the current lookback window
Rate acceleration1.52xCurrent rate versus local background
Conditions met3 / 5Active coherence singularity conditions
Technical breakdown

Cell 53N, 167W

This cell stands out because 3/5 precursor conditions are active, the b-value is compressed at 0.66, and loading exceeds healing by 13.1x. The current window contains 14 recent catalog events with a maximum magnitude of 4.5.

Critical
3.7%
3 of 5 singularity conditions active
Signal diagnostics
b-value0.663
b-value trend0.1230
Correlation length12.7 km
Corr. length trend-1.81 km/month
Rate acceleration1.52x
IET delta-AIC934.14
S / Gamma13.120
Days to criticality2097
Depth trend2.54 km
Spatial concentration68.6 km
Singularity conditions
Correlation length elevatedNO
b-value depressedYES
IET LorentzianNO
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading exceeds healingYES
What is driving the rank
  • b-value depressed
  • Rate accelerating
  • Loading exceeds healing
  • Window probability: 3.7% over the next 30 days.
  • Catalog support: 14 recent events, max magnitude 4.5.

Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics

15N, 93W -- Coherence fields

3.7%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days) (90% band: 3.7%-3.7%)
b-value (GR)0.8740
Correlation length (km)42.1000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)1.9300
Rate acceleration3.2000
IET delta-AIC220.0600
S / Gamma15.8920
tau (coherence field)4.6305
grad(tau)0.2934
Days to criticality93.7000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met2 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)no
b-value depressed (<0.85)no
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)YES
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES

Cell statistics

Location15N, 93W
Events (30 days)92
Max magnitudeM7.3
b-value trend--
Depth trend-24.07 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0

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