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Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

What should I do?

There are currently 118 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

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Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Last updateMon, 27 Jul 2026 07:09:41 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)
Active storms118 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1Central USCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107464Very High37.74 N, 87.66 W | CAPE 3459 J/kg | SRH 136 | AzShear 0.00201.1%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3459 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US37.74 N, 87.66 W
Storm motion+1.6E / +9.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107464Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107464

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
37.743 N, 87.664 W
MUCAPE 3459 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.743 N, 87.664 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion22 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3459 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH136 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear27 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.5195 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4126
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-1.8168
S / Gamma ratio2.35 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number36.80
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)136 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3459 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.4)
2Near Chattanooga, TNCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107224Very High35.31 N, 85.60 W | CAPE 2001 J/kg | SRH 88 | AzShear 0.00401.1%
Threat brief

Near Chattanooga, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 2001 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNear Chattanooga, TN35.31 N, 85.60 W
Storm motion+4.4E / +3.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107224Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107224

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
35.308 N, 85.604 W
MUCAPE 2001 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.308 N, 85.604 W
LocationNear Chattanooga, TN
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion13 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2001 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH88 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear22 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.9 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.25 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate6 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.0809 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3266
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)3.4673
S / Gamma ratio9.18 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number13.99
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.08) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (9.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)88 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2001 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
3Near Chattanooga, TNCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107467Very High35.18 N, 85.63 W | CAPE 1760 J/kg | SRH 97 | AzShear 0.00201.1%
Threat brief

Near Chattanooga, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 1760 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationNear Chattanooga, TN35.18 N, 85.63 W
Storm motion+4.4E / +3.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107467Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107467

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
35.176 N, 85.631 W
MUCAPE 1760 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.176 N, 85.631 W
LocationNear Chattanooga, TN
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion13 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1760 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH97 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear26 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.0 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.35 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate4 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)3.0809 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3266
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)3.4673
S / Gamma ratio9.18 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number13.99
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=3.08) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (9.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)97 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1760 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
4Central USCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107177Very High37.71 N, 87.55 W | CAPE 3830 J/kg | SRH 97 | AzShear 0.00301.1%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3830 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US37.71 N, 87.55 W
Storm motion+1.7E / +9.5SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107177Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107177

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
37.707 N, 87.554 W
MUCAPE 3830 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.707 N, 87.554 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion22 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3830 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH97 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear32 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.15 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.5195 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4126
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-1.8168
S / Gamma ratio2.35 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number36.80
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.52) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)97 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3830 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.1)
5Central USCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107453Very High38.10 N, 87.90 W | CAPE 2364 J/kg | SRH 87 | AzShear 0.00801.1%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.008 s^-1 MUCAPE 2364 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US38.10 N, 87.90 W
Storm motion+1.1E / +9.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107453Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107453

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
38.103 N, 87.898 W
Rotation 0.008 s^-1 MUCAPE 2364 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.103 N, 87.898 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion21 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2364 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH87 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear33 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0080 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.09 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7670 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2316
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.5629
S / Gamma ratio2.65 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.90
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.77) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)87 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2364 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
6Central USCRITICAL1.1% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107360Very High38.26 N, 87.91 W | CAPE 2401 J/kg | SRH 73 | AzShear 0.00701.1%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
1.1%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 2401 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US38.26 N, 87.91 W
Storm motion+0.2E / +8.2SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107360Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107360

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.1%
38.262 N, 87.912 W
Rotation 0.007 s^-1 MUCAPE 2401 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.262 N, 87.912 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion18 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2401 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH73 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear24 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.9 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0070 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.16 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate3 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7670 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2316
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.5629
S / Gamma ratio2.65 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.90
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.77) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.1%
Analytic coherence model1.1%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)73 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2401 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
7Central USCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107373Very High38.55 N, 88.39 W | CAPE 3574 J/kg | SRH 81 | AzShear 0.00500.6%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3574 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US38.55 N, 88.39 W
Storm motion-1.0E / +6.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107373Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107373

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
38.552 N, 88.391 W
MUCAPE 3574 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.552 N, 88.391 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion15 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3574 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH81 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear33 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.8 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.64 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate8 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.9447 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1044
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.2361
S / Gamma ratio4.74 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number25.25
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.94) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (4.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)81 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3574 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.8)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
8Central USCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107448Very High39.61 N, 89.25 W | CAPE 3999 J/kg | SRH 86 | AzShear 0.00200.6%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3999 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US39.61 N, 89.25 W
Storm motion+3.9E / +1.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107448Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107448

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
39.608 N, 89.248 W
MUCAPE 3999 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates39.608 N, 89.248 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3999 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH86 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear35 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.0 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7598 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2917
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-7.9049
S / Gamma ratio2.58 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number39.84
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.76) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)86 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3999 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.0)
9Central USCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107451Very High38.80 N, 88.50 W | CAPE 3777 J/kg | SRH 80 | AzShear 0.00400.6%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 3777 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US38.80 N, 88.50 W
Storm motion+0.0E / +6.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107451Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107451

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
38.798 N, 88.504 W
MUCAPE 3777 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.798 N, 88.504 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion14 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3777 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH80 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear39 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.79 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate6 /min (Moderate)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.9164 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0949
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.6979
S / Gamma ratio3.22 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number30.68
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.92) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)80 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3777 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.1)
10Central USCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107269Very High37.98 N, 88.19 W | CAPE 2654 J/kg | SRH 198 | AzShear 0.00900.6%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.009 s^-1 MUCAPE 2654 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 198 Flash rate 95/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US37.98 N, 88.19 W
Storm motion+1.2E / +9.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107269Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107269

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
37.977 N, 88.194 W
Rotation 0.009 s^-1 MUCAPE 2654 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 198 Flash rate 95/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.977 N, 88.194 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion22 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2654 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH198 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear39 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate4.6 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0090 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.82 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate95 /min (Intense)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7670 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2316
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.5629
S / Gamma ratio2.65 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.90
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.77) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)198 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2654 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2654, SRH 198)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 4.6)
  • Active lightning (95/min) indicates strong updraft
11Upper MidwestCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107370Very High44.48 N, 88.26 W | CAPE 4477 J/kg | SRH 86 | AzShear 0.00200.6%
Threat brief

Upper Midwest

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

MUCAPE 4477 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationUpper Midwest44.48 N, 88.26 W
Storm motion+6.2E / +7.9SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107370Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107370

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
44.476 N, 88.260 W
MUCAPE 4477 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.476 N, 88.260 W
LocationUpper Midwest
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion22 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE4477 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH86 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear39 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4190 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2130
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)9.1564
S / Gamma ratio0.82 (Near balance)
Damkohler number41.68
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.42) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.8) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)86 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)4477 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.2)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
12Central USCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107350Very High38.47 N, 87.84 W | CAPE 2393 J/kg | SRH 46 | AzShear 0.00600.6%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 2393 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US38.47 N, 87.84 W
Storm motion+0.0E / +6.9SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107350Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107350

This storm has moderate rotation detected, unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
38.470 N, 87.843 W
Rotation 0.006 s^-1 MUCAPE 2393 J/kg 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.470 N, 87.843 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion15 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2393 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH46 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.6 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0060 s^-1 (Moderate rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.39 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate4 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7670 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2316
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.5629
S / Gamma ratio2.65 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number34.90
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.77) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.6) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)46 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2393 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Moderate low-level rotation (AzShear > 0.005)
1357 mi N of Nashville, TNHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107259High36.93 N, 86.46 W | CAPE 1526 J/kg | SRH 87 | AzShear 0.00200.6%
Threat brief

57 mi N of Nashville, TN

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 1526 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location57 mi N of Nashville, TN36.93 N, 86.46 W
Storm motion+1.3E / +8.7SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107259Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107259

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
36.925 N, 86.460 W
MUCAPE 1526 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.925 N, 86.460 W
Location57 mi N of Nashville, TN
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion20 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1526 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH87 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear30 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.9 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.3678 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1721
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.6265
S / Gamma ratio2.35 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number30.67
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.37) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)87 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1526 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
1490 mi E of Madison, WIHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 106353High43.64 N, 88.23 W | CAPE 2690 J/kg | SRH 106 | AzShear 0.00300.6%
Threat brief

90 mi E of Madison, WI

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2690 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location90 mi E of Madison, WI43.64 N, 88.23 W
Storm motion+3.9E / +1.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID106353Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 106353

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
43.642 N, 88.231 W
MUCAPE 2690 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates43.642 N, 88.231 W
Location90 mi E of Madison, WI
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion9 mph ESE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length7 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2690 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH106 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear37 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.3 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.04 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.4466 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.6851
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.7680
S / Gamma ratio2.35 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number26.03
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.45) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)106 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2690 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.3)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
15Upper MidwestHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107202High44.58 N, 88.51 W | CAPE 3964 J/kg | SRH 107 | AzShear 0.00300.6%
Threat brief

Upper Midwest

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 3964 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationUpper Midwest44.58 N, 88.51 W
Storm motion+7.0E / +10.3SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107202Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107202

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
44.577 N, 88.508 W
MUCAPE 3964 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.577 N, 88.508 W
LocationUpper Midwest
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion28 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE3964 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH107 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear49 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.9 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.04 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4956 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4707
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.9491
S / Gamma ratio1.40 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.82
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.50) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)107 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)3964 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.9)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
16Central USHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 106907High39.05 N, 88.51 W | CAPE 4372 J/kg | SRH 86 | AzShear 0.00300.6%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 4372 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US39.05 N, 88.51 W
Storm motion+1.7E / +6.4SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID106907Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 106907

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
39.047 N, 88.509 W
MUCAPE 4372 J/kg Flash rate 26/min 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates39.047 N, 88.509 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion15 mph SSE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE4372 J/kg (Extreme)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH86 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear38 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.2 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.92 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate26 /min (Active)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.9164 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0949
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.6979
S / Gamma ratio3.22 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number30.68
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.92) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (3.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)86 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)4372 J/kg is ~99th+ for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.2)
  • Active lightning (26/min) indicates strong updraft
17Southern Plains / Deep SouthHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107379High31.26 N, 82.97 W | CAPE 2526 J/kg | SRH 74 | AzShear 0.00400.6%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2526 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South31.26 N, 82.97 W
Storm motion+2.8E / +5.6SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107379Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107379

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
31.259 N, 82.971 W
MUCAPE 2526 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates31.259 N, 82.971 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion14 mph SSE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2526 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH74 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear20 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.8 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7505 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5378
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.3428
S / Gamma ratio1.71 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number26.80
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.75) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)74 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2526 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
18Upper MidwestHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 106905High44.85 N, 88.67 W | CAPE 2073 J/kg | SRH 89 | AzShear 0.00200.6%
Threat brief

Upper Midwest

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.5%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2073 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
LocationUpper Midwest44.85 N, 88.67 W
Storm motion+5.3E / +5.3SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID106905Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 106905

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
44.847 N, 88.668 W
MUCAPE 2073 J/kg 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates44.847 N, 88.668 W
LocationUpper Midwest
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion17 mph SE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length4 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2073 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH89 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear50 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.6 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.4956 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4707
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)5.9491
S / Gamma ratio1.40 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.82
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.50) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)89 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2073 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.6)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
19Southern Plains / Deep SouthHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107135High31.41 N, 83.13 W | CAPE 2698 J/kg | SRH 88 | AzShear 0.00500.6%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2698 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South31.41 N, 83.13 W
Storm motion+2.6E / +6.1SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107135Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107135

This storm has unstable atmosphere, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
31.407 N, 83.130 W
MUCAPE 2698 J/kg 4/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates31.407 N, 83.130 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion15 mph SSE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2698 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH88 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear21 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.16 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)2.7505 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.5378
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.3428
S / Gamma ratio1.71 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number26.80
Singularity conditions4 / 5 (CRITICAL)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=2.75) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

CRITICAL: 4/5 singularity conditions met - coherence theory indicates high tornado commitment potential.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)88 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2698 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~1% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (4/5)
20Central USHIGH0.4% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTCStorm 107454High37.16 N, 87.94 W | CAPE 2555 J/kg | SRH 253 | AzShear 0.00200.4%
Threat brief

Central US

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure.

HIGH
0.4%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.4%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

MUCAPE 2555 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 253 2/5 singularity conditions
LocationCentral US37.16 N, 87.94 W
Storm motion+1.8E / +8.8SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID107454Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 107454

This storm has unstable atmosphere, strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.4%
37.157 N, 87.936 W
MUCAPE 2555 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 253 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.157 N, 87.936 W
LocationCentral US
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Storm motion20 mph SSE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE2555 J/kg (High)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH253 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear53 kt (Extreme)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate5.7 (Significant tornado environment)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.9455 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3416
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)7.1628
S / Gamma ratio0.52 (Near balance)
Damkohler number53.30
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.95) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.5) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.4%
Analytic coherence model0.4%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)253 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)2555 J/kg is ~95th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500, SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
Why This Probability
  • High instability + helicity environment (CAPE 2555, SRH 253)
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 5.7)
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 107464 -- Coherence fields

1.1%
Tornado probability (90% band: 1.0%-1.1%)
tau2.5195
grad_tau0.4126
torsion0.0000
alignment-1.8168
S_field1.3128
Gamma_field0.5585
S / Gamma2.3505
Da (Damkohler)36.8001
E_coh0.8655
Singularity count2.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met2 / 5
s_over_gammaYES
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerYES

Storm parameters

Location37.7433, -87.6644
CAPE3459 J/kg
0-1km SRH136 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear27 kt
MaxLLAz0.0020 /s
Valid time2026-07-27 07:00:39 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

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