Live severe weather intelligence

Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

What should I do?

There are currently 139 storm cells being tracked. Monitor weather.gov for official warnings in your area. If a tornado warning is issued, seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

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Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location

Storm locations

Active ProbSevere storm objects. Click markers for details.

Last updateThu, 24 Sep 2026 02:55:03 UTC (every 2 hr)
Scoring modelML (pre-trained gradient-boosted trees)
Active storms139 storms
Coherence sourceHRRR 80 km grid

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

146 mi S of Woodward, OKCRITICAL1.0% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822431Very High35.76 N, 100.34 W | CAPE 800 J/kg | SRH 96 | AzShear 0.00201.0%
Threat brief

46 mi S of Woodward, OK

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

CRITICAL
1.0%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.9%-1.0%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

2/5 singularity conditions
Location46 mi S of Woodward, OK35.76 N, 100.34 W
Storm motion+0.0E / -11.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822431Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822431

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
1.0%
35.764 N, 100.341 W
2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.764 N, 100.341 W
Location46 mi S of Woodward, OK
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion25 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE800 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH96 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear37 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.6 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate3 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.2604 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0479
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-9.6461
S / Gamma ratio2.86 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.22
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.26) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability1.0%
Analytic coherence model1.0%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)96 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)800 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
2Southern Plains / Deep SouthCRITICAL0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822092Very High35.10 N, 99.76 W | CAPE 501 J/kg | SRH 74 | AzShear 0.00200.6%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

CRITICAL
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Seek shelter immediately if NWS issues a tornado warning for your area. Have your emergency plan ready.

2/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South35.10 N, 99.76 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822092Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822092

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Very High
0.6%
35.098 N, 99.756 W
2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.098 N, 99.756 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE501 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH74 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear26 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.2604 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0479
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-9.6461
S / Gamma ratio2.86 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.22
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.26) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)74 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)501 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
382 mi S of Woodward, OKHIGH0.6% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822581High35.27 N, 100.15 W | CAPE 652 J/kg | SRH 69 | AzShear 0.00300.6%
Threat brief

82 mi S of Woodward, OK

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

HIGH
0.6%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.6%-0.6%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

2/5 singularity conditions
Location82 mi S of Woodward, OK35.27 N, 100.15 W
Storm motion+4.4E / -1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822581Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822581

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.6%
35.272 N, 100.149 W
2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.272 N, 100.149 W
Location82 mi S of Woodward, OK
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion10 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE652 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH69 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear27 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.3 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.2604 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0479
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-9.6461
S / Gamma ratio2.86 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number12.22
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.26) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.6%
Analytic coherence model0.6%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)69 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)652 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
444 mi N of Fargo, NDHIGH0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822657High47.46 N, 96.53 W | CAPE 161 J/kg | SRH 254 | AzShear 0.00300.3%
Threat brief

44 mi N of Fargo, ND

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

HIGH
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.3%-0.3%)
What to do

Stay weather-aware. Monitor NWS warnings. Know where your nearest shelter is.

0-1 km SRH 254
Location44 mi N of Fargo, ND47.46 N, 96.53 W
Storm motion+7.4E / -4.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822657Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822657

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

High
0.3%
47.461 N, 96.534 W
0-1 km SRH 254
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.461 N, 96.534 W
Location44 mi N of Fargo, ND
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion19 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE161 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH254 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear11 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.1 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.9057 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3329
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.6396
S / Gamma ratio2.33 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number9.59
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.91) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)254 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)161 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
5Southern Plains / Deep SouthELEVATED0.3% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822175Moderate34.73 N, 99.36 W | CAPE 443 J/kg | SRH 71 | AzShear 0.00300.3%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.3%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.3%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

3/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South34.73 N, 99.36 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822175Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822175

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.3%
34.732 N, 99.363 W
3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.732 N, 99.363 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE443 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH71 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear30 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1589 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1356
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)4.9842
S / Gamma ratio1.73 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.40
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.16) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.3%
Analytic coherence model0.3%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)71 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)443 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
635.5 N, 103.0 WELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822237Moderate35.51 N, 103.02 W | CAPE 1374 J/kg | SRH 171 | AzShear 0.00300.2%
Threat brief

35.5 N, 103.0 W

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1374 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 171 2/5 singularity conditions
Location35.5 N, 103.0 W35.51 N, 103.02 W
Storm motion+2.4E / -10.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822237Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822237

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
35.511 N, 103.019 W
MUCAPE 1374 J/kg 0-1 km SRH 171 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.511 N, 103.019 W
Location35.5 N, 103.0 W
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion23 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1374 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH171 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear41 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate2.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0980 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0987
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.0216
S / Gamma ratio1.91 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number11.55
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.10) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)171 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1374 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 2.1)
7High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822531Moderate38.11 N, 101.81 W | CAPE 737 J/kg | SRH 133 | AzShear 0.00100.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

3/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains38.11 N, 101.81 W
Storm motion+0.9E / -8.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822531Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822531

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
38.106 N, 101.812 W
3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.106 N, 101.812 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion18 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE737 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH133 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear24 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.5 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.9220 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1002
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)8.2026
S / Gamma ratio1.23 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number13.19
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.92) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)133 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)737 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
848 mi E of Fargo, NDELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822648Moderate47.30 N, 96.23 W | CAPE 143 J/kg | SRH 288 | AzShear 0.00400.2%
Threat brief

48 mi E of Fargo, ND

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

0-1 km SRH 288 2/5 singularity conditions
Location48 mi E of Fargo, ND47.30 N, 96.23 W
Storm motion+7.2E / -3.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822648Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822648

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
47.299 N, 96.232 W
0-1 km SRH 288 2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.299 N, 96.232 W
Location48 mi E of Fargo, ND
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion17 mph ENE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE143 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH288 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear10 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.1 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1440 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2247
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.1505
S / Gamma ratio1.89 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number10.28
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.14) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.9) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)288 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)143 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
973 mi N of Fargo, NDELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822083Moderate47.72 N, 96.15 W | CAPE 24 J/kg | SRH 261 | AzShear 0.00100.2%
Threat brief

73 mi N of Fargo, ND

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

0-1 km SRH 261
Location73 mi N of Fargo, ND47.72 N, 96.15 W
Storm motion+7.2E / -5.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822083Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822083

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
47.723 N, 96.154 W
0-1 km SRH 261
Location & Timing
Coordinates47.723 N, 96.154 W
Location73 mi N of Fargo, ND
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion20 mph NE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE24 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH261 m^2/s^2 (High)
Effective bulk shear8 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.0 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.9057 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.3329
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.6396
S / Gamma ratio2.33 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number9.59
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.91) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (2.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)261 m^2/s^2 is ~95th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)24 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (SRH>200) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
10Southern Plains / Deep SouthELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822457Moderate34.44 N, 99.27 W | CAPE 537 J/kg | SRH 62 | AzShear 0.00200.2%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

3/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South34.44 N, 99.27 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822457Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822457

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
34.443 N, 99.273 W
3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.443 N, 99.273 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE537 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH62 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0020 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1589 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1356
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)4.9842
S / Gamma ratio1.73 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number19.40
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.16) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.7) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)62 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)537 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
11Southeast USELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822418Moderate33.66 N, 76.45 W | CAPE 1430 J/kg | SRH 17 | AzShear 0.00300.2%
Threat brief

Southeast US

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1430 J/kg
LocationSoutheast US33.66 N, 76.45 W
Storm motion+0.1E / +1.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822418Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822418

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
33.658 N, 76.446 W
MUCAPE 1430 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates33.658 N, 76.446 W
LocationSoutheast US
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion2 mph S
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1430 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH17 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear49 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.04 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1492 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1400
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-9.5603
S / Gamma ratio0.67 (Near balance)
Damkohler number9.89
Singularity conditions0 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.15) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)17 m^2/s^2 is ~below median for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1430 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
1265 mi W of Liberal, KSELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822279Moderate36.72 N, 101.81 W | CAPE 909 J/kg | SRH 185 | AzShear 0.00400.2%
Threat brief

65 mi W of Liberal, KS

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

0-1 km SRH 185
Location65 mi W of Liberal, KS36.72 N, 101.81 W
Storm motion+1.3E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822279Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822279

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
36.715 N, 101.811 W
0-1 km SRH 185
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.715 N, 101.811 W
Location65 mi W of Liberal, KS
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion16 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE909 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH185 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear37 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.4 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0040 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.14 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0612 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0749
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.5314
S / Gamma ratio1.34 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number8.92
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)185 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)909 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.4)
1355 mi E of Liberal, KSELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 820423Moderate37.47 N, 100.25 W | CAPE 302 J/kg | SRH 158 | AzShear 0.00500.2%
Threat brief

55 mi E of Liberal, KS

This storm has strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

0-1 km SRH 158 3/5 singularity conditions
Location55 mi E of Liberal, KS37.47 N, 100.25 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID820423Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 820423

This storm has strong low-level wind shear, coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
37.472 N, 100.255 W
0-1 km SRH 158 3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates37.472 N, 100.255 W
Location55 mi E of Liberal, KS
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length6 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE302 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH158 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear32 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.3 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.09 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.1224 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1219
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)6.2454
S / Gamma ratio1.15 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number23.77
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.12) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)158 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)302 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
1471 mi W of Liberal, KSELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822532Moderate36.87 N, 101.94 W | CAPE 994 J/kg | SRH 189 | AzShear 0.00300.2%
Threat brief

71 mi W of Liberal, KS

This storm has strong low-level wind shear.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

0-1 km SRH 189
Location71 mi W of Liberal, KS36.87 N, 101.94 W
Storm motion+1.2E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822532Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822532

This storm has strong low-level wind shear. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
36.871 N, 101.939 W
0-1 km SRH 189
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.871 N, 101.939 W
Location71 mi W of Liberal, KS
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion16 mph N
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE994 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH189 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear36 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.5 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.09 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate1 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0612 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0749
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-0.5314
S / Gamma ratio1.34 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number8.92
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.3) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)189 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)994 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.5)
1535.9 N, 102.9 WELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822510Moderate35.88 N, 102.86 W | CAPE 908 J/kg | SRH 149 | AzShear 0.00500.2%
Threat brief

35.9 N, 102.9 W

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

2/5 singularity conditions
Location35.9 N, 102.9 W35.88 N, 102.86 W
Storm motion+2.2E / -11.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822510Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822510

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
35.879 N, 102.855 W
2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates35.879 N, 102.855 W
Location35.9 N, 102.9 W
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion25 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE908 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH149 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear38 kt (High)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate1.1 (Tornado possible)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.08 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0629 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0974
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.4016
S / Gamma ratio1.37 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number14.95
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)149 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)908 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Significant tornado parameter elevated (STP 1.1)
1691 mi N of Liberal, KSELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822374Moderate38.21 N, 101.55 W | CAPE 599 J/kg | SRH 134 | AzShear 0.00100.2%
Threat brief

91 mi N of Liberal, KS

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

3/5 singularity conditions
Location91 mi N of Liberal, KS38.21 N, 101.55 W
Storm motion+1.4E / -7.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822374Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822374

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
38.208 N, 101.549 W
3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates38.208 N, 101.549 W
Location91 mi N of Liberal, KS
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion16 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE599 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH134 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear22 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.4 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.05 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.9220 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1002
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)8.2026
S / Gamma ratio1.23 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number13.19
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=0.92) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.2) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)134 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)599 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
1736.4 N, 102.8 WELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822540Moderate36.35 N, 102.84 W | CAPE 682 J/kg | SRH 133 | AzShear 0.00300.2%
Threat brief

36.4 N, 102.8 W

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

2/5 singularity conditions
Location36.4 N, 102.8 W36.35 N, 102.84 W
Storm motion+2.7E / -10.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822540Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822540

No significant tornado signals detected in this storm. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
36.351 N, 102.839 W
2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates36.351 N, 102.839 W
Location36.4 N, 102.8 W
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion23 mph NNE
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE682 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH133 m^2/s^2 (Moderate)
Effective bulk shear34 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.7 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0030 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.06 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate2 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)1.0629 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.0974
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-2.4016
S / Gamma ratio1.37 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number14.95
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.06) indicates well-organized convective structure.

The source/damping ratio (1.4) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)133 m^2/s^2 is ~75th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)682 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures
18Southern Plains / Deep SouthELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822553Moderate34.30 N, 99.38 W | CAPE 648 J/kg | SRH 74 | AzShear 0.00500.2%
Threat brief

Southern Plains / Deep South

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

2/5 singularity conditions
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South34.30 N, 99.38 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822553Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822553

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
34.302 N, 99.383 W
2/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates34.302 N, 99.383 W
LocationSouthern Plains / Deep South
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE648 J/kg (Low)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH74 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.2 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0050 s^-1 (Weak rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.9997 (Strong coherence)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.1511
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)10.3548
S / Gamma ratio0.67 (Near balance)
Damkohler number24.78
Singularity conditions2 / 5 (Marginal)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Strong atmospheric coherence (tau=1.00) indicates well-organized convective structure.

Source/damping ratio (0.7) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Marginal: 2/5 singularity conditions.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)74 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)648 J/kg is ~50th for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
19High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822319Moderate49.68 N, 100.57 W | CAPE 134 J/kg | SRH 75 | AzShear 0.00100.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has coherent wind structure.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

3/5 singularity conditions
LocationHigh Plains49.68 N, 100.57 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822319Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822319

This storm has coherent wind structure. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
49.680 N, 100.572 W
3/5 singularity conditions
Location & Timing
Coordinates49.680 N, 100.572 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE134 J/kg (Marginal)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH75 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear15 kt (Low)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.0 (Low)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.00 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.0000 (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.4360
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)1.1154
S / Gamma ratio1.13 (Source exceeds damping)
Damkohler number38.39
Singularity conditions3 / 5 (Elevated)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Weak coherence (tau=0.00) - limited atmospheric organization.

The source/damping ratio (1.1) exceeds unity - energy input exceeds dissipation, favorable for storm intensification.

Wind shear is aligned with the coherence gradient, a signature the theory associates with tornadic transition.

Elevated: 3/5 singularity conditions - approaching coherence commitment threshold.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)75 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)134 J/kg is ~below median for CONUS spring
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Wind shear aligned with coherence gradient (alignment term active)
  • Multiple coherence singularity conditions met (3/5)
20High PlainsELEVATED0.2% tornado risk in the next 24 hours | 2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTCStorm 822566Moderate50.33 N, 106.90 W | CAPE 1802 J/kg | SRH 64 | AzShear 0.00100.2%
Threat brief

High Plains

This storm has unstable atmosphere.

ELEVATED
0.2%
Estimated tornado probability for this storm object (90% band: 0.2%-0.2%)
What to do

Be aware of developing severe weather. Check weather.gov for updates.

MUCAPE 1802 J/kg
LocationHigh Plains50.33 N, 106.90 W
Storm motion+4.9E / +0.0SMotion components used in the analytic scoring stack
ProbSevere ID822566Active convective object identifier
Official guidanceweather.govAlways follow NWS watches and warnings first
Technical breakdown

Storm 822566

This storm has unstable atmosphere. The current analytic blend uses ProbSevere storm attributes, coherence diagnostics, and a physics-first scoring tier.

Moderate
0.2%
50.327 N, 106.899 W
MUCAPE 1802 J/kg
Location & Timing
Coordinates50.327 N, 106.899 W
LocationHigh Plains
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Storm motion11 mph E
Storm size0 km^2
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier1_ml
Atmospheric State (from ProbSevere)
MUCAPE1802 J/kg (Moderate)
MLCAPE0 J/kg
MLCIN0 J/kg
0-1km SRH64 m^2/s^2 (Low)
Effective bulk shear23 kt (Moderate)
Precipitable water0.0 in
Wet bulb 0C height0 kft
STP estimate0.6 (Marginal)
Radar Signatures
Max low-level AzShear0.0010 s^-1 (No significant rotation)
P98 low-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
P98 mid-level AzShear0.0000 s^-1
MESH (max hail)0.05 in
VIL density0.00 g/m^3
Lightning Activity
Flash rate0 /min (Quiet)
Flash density0.00
Lightning jump (LJA)0.0
ProbSevere Scores
ProbSevere (any severe)0%
ProbSevere tornado0%
Coherence Field Theory Analysis
Coherence amplitude (tau)0.0000 (Minimal)
Coherence gradient (|grad tau|)0.2948
Torsion (SRH x curl tau)0.0000
Alignment (shear dot grad tau)-4.1346
S / Gamma ratio0.99 (Near balance)
Damkohler number17.53
Singularity conditions1 / 5 (Low)
Coherence sourcehrrr
Coherence Interpretation

Weak coherence (tau=0.00) - limited atmospheric organization.

Source/damping ratio (1.0) is approaching balance - storm may intensify if conditions persist.

Model Confidence
Combined probability0.2%
Analytic coherence model0.2%
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0
Comparison to Climatology
SRH percentile (approx.)64 m^2/s^2 is ~50th for CONUS spring
CAPE percentile (approx.)1802 J/kg is ~75th for CONUS spring
Historical analogsStorms with similar profiles (CAPE>1500) produced tornadoes ~0% of the time in training data
Data Provenance
Atmospheric dataProbSevere v3 via NOAA MRMS (2-minute update cycle)
Coherence fieldHelmholtz PDE solved on HRRR 80 km grid
Modelhp-tornado-coherence-v1 (GBT, 41 features, AUC 0.894 on 2024 test data)
New tier (research)hp-tornado-hrrr-env-v1 -- HRRR atmospheric-environment forest (26 features incl. STP/SRH/shear), AUC 0.88 on a 2022-2024 multi-year out-of-sample holdout; calibrated (ECE 0.008) and 0-ULP-signed. Not yet the live tier.
Why This Probability
  • Storm shows marginal severe weather signatures

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 822431 -- Coherence fields

1.0%
Tornado probability (90% band: 0.9%-1.0%)
tau1.2604
grad_tau0.0479
torsion0.0000
alignment-9.6461
S_field0.5576
Gamma_field0.1953
S / Gamma2.8554
Da (Damkohler)12.2159
E_coh0.3167
Singularity count2.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met2 / 5
s_over_gammaYES
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerYES

Storm parameters

Location35.7643, -100.3414
CAPE800 J/kg
0-1km SRH96 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear37 kt
MaxLLAz0.0020 /s
Valid time2026-09-24 02:30:40 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

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