Disclaimer

HazardPulse provides experimental probabilistic research outputs. These represent model-based estimates of hazard probability with stated uncertainty bounds. They are not official forecasts, warnings, watches, or advisories.

The probabilistic outputs published on this platform are the result of automated statistical and machine-learning models applied to publicly available data. While we strive for accuracy and transparency, no model perfectly predicts natural hazard events.

• HazardPulse does not issue official forecasts or warnings.
• HazardPulse does not replace USGS, NHC, NWS, SPC, or any government agency.
• HazardPulse outputs should not be used as the sole basis for evacuation, shelter, or emergency management decisions.
• HazardPulse does not guarantee the accuracy of any individual forecast.
• A probability of X% means there is a (100-X)% chance the event does not occur. This is not a prediction of certainty.

All HazardPulse forecasts are expressed as probabilities with confidence bands. A forecast of 27.4% (21.2–33.0) means:

• Our best estimate is a 27.4% chance of the event occurring.
• Given model and data uncertainty, the true probability likely falls between 21.2% and 33.0%.
• There is a 72.6% chance the event does not occur.

Probabilities should be interpreted in context. A 27% earthquake probability over 30 days in a seismically active region may be routine. The same number in a quiet region would be highly unusual. Always consider the base rate for your area.

HazardPulse and Coherence Energy Labs provide this platform "as is" without warranty of any kind, express or implied. We are not liable for any damages arising from use of or reliance on these outputs, including but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages.

By using this platform, you acknowledge that these are experimental research outputs and agree to verify all hazard information through official government sources.