HazardPulse
Classic
Real-time global monitoring
Live Hazard Pulse
All three hazard types on one page - earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes worldwide. Every forecast shows probability, confidence range, trend, and full evidence lineage. Updated every 3 hours.
Global hazard map
All active hazard zones across earthquakes, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Hover a marker for details. Click to see full analysis.
Earthquake zone
Tropical system
Tornado cell
Your location
Earthquake Forecasts
Full earthquake detail →30-day M6.0+ probability for the three highest-risk seismic zones. Models run every cycle using USGS + JMA catalogs.
1
Southern California
27.4%
M6.0+ in 30 days
WhereSan Andreas fault zone, Southern CA, USA
Trend↑ +1.9% (rising)
Plain languageA cluster of small quakes near the San Andreas is pushing risk above the recent average. Still within historical norms.
Modelhp-etas-v3.2.1 (ETAS + Coulomb)
b-value0.91 (shifted from 0.95)
Coulomb ΔS+0.12 bar on locked SA segment
Checks passed
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2
Nankai Trough
22.1%
M6.0+ in 30 days
WhereNankai subduction zone, Japan
Trend↑ +0.8% (rising)
Plain languageSlow-slip events detected on the Philippine Sea plate interface are gradually increasing stress on the locked zone.
Modelhp-etas-v3.2.1 (ETAS + BPT)
Slow-slip3.2 cm transient detected via tiltmeter array
Elapsed ratioT/Tr = 0.58 (BPT recurrence)
Checks passed
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3
E. Anatolian Fault
19.8%
M6.0+ in 30 days
WhereEast Anatolian fault, Turkey
Trend↓ −0.5% (declining)
Plain languageAftershock sequence from the Feb 2023 earthquake continues, though the rate is slowly declining. Stress remains elevated on adjacent segments.
Modelhp-etas-v3.2.1 (ETAS + Coulomb)
Omori decayp = 1.12, consistent with expected rate decline
Adjacent ΔCFS+0.08 bar on Amanos segment
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Hurricane & Typhoon Forecasts
Full hurricane detail →Rapid intensification scoring using hp-hurricane-ri-v8.1 (AUC 0.938). Data from NHC ATCF advisories.
TEST DATA — Hurricane Alice is a synthetic storm for development testing
Tornado Forecasts
Full tornado detail →24-hour tornado formation probability for the three highest-risk mesoscale regions. SPC-calibrated convective models.
Heads up - one data source is delayed
The Storm Prediction Center's analysis data is 48 minutes old (our limit is 45 minutes). This forecast is still published, but with wider uncertainty bands to account for the stale data. What does this mean? →
1
Central Oklahoma
18.6%
Tornado formation in 24 h
WhereCentral Oklahoma & northern Texas, USA
Trend↓ −2.1% (declining)
Plain languageRisk is declining as the severe weather pattern weakens. A temperature cap is forming, making storms less likely to develop.
Modelhp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 (SPC-calibrated)
CAPE2800 J/kg (below 3200 threshold)
CIN−120 J/kg (cap strengthening)
0-1 km SRH210 m²/s²
Limited data
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2
Northern Texas
16.2%
Tornado formation in 24 h
WhereNorth-central Texas (Dallas–Fort Worth corridor), USA
Trend↓ −1.8% (declining)
Plain languageThe same weakening pattern affecting Oklahoma is reducing risk across northern Texas. Dew points are falling, reducing thunderstorm fuel.
Modelhp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 (SPC-calibrated)
CAPE2450 J/kg
LCL height1200 m (marginal for tornadoes)
Bulk shear 0-6 km38 kt
Limited data
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3
Dhaka Corridor
15.8%
Tornado formation in 24 h
WhereGreater Dhaka and surrounding districts, Bangladesh
Trend↑ +2.3% (rising)
Plain languagePre-monsoon instability is building across Bangladesh. The Dhaka region sees a seasonal spike in tornado risk as warm, moist air from the Bay of Bengal surges inland.
Modelhp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 (Bangladesh calibration)
CAPE3200 J/kg
Low-level jet25 kt at 925 hPa (strong moisture transport)
0-3 km lapse rate7.2°C/km (steep)
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What changed since last update
Plain-language summary of what's driving the numbers across all three hazard types.
Summary
Hurricane Alice (↑2.4%)SST 28.7°C and dropping shear create favorable conditions for rapid intensification.
Earthquake (↑1.9%)A cluster of small quakes near the San Andreas fault pushed activity above the recent average.
Tornado (↓2.1%)The weather pattern pushing severe storms into Oklahoma is weakening, and a temperature cap is holding.
Dhaka Corridor (↑2.3%)Pre-monsoon instability building across Bangladesh as warm Bay of Bengal air surges inland.
Technical drivers
Hurricane Alice (↑2.4%)hp-hurricane-ri-v8.1. SST 28.7°C, shear 10 kt, OFCL ΔV +20 kt, cross-aid RI vote 5/8. Favorable thermodynamic environment for RI.
Earthquake - S. Californiab-value shifted 0.95 → 0.91. Coulomb stress transfer +0.12 bar on locked SA segment. ETAS cluster: 14 events M2.1–M3.4 in 72 h.
Earthquake - NankaiSlow-slip transient 3.2 cm detected on tiltmeter array. BPT elapsed ratio T/Tr = 0.58. Background rate elevated 12% above seasonal norm.
Tornado - Oklahoma500 hPa trough amplitude decreased 15%. Surface dew-point depression widened to 8°C. CAPE fell 3400 → 2800 J/kg. CIN increased to −120 J/kg.
Tornado - DhakaCAPE rose to 3200 J/kg. 925 hPa jet 25 kt (strong moisture transport). 0-3 km lapse rate 7.2°C/km. Pre-monsoon convective mode transition underway.
System health
Last update6 minutes ago
Hazards tracked24 active zones globally
Countries covered13 nations
Replay rate99.97% of forecasts
Quality checks (7d)98.9% passed
Gate throughput13/13 gates green
P99 latency2.4 s (target: <5 s)
DeterminismLast 500 cycles: 100%
Build hashsha256:a1b2c3…f4e5
Active counts
Earthquakes10 zones tracked
Hurricanes1 active storm
Tornadoes9 active regions