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30-day M6.0+ earthquake probability for the world's most active seismic zones. Grid cells ranked by coherence field singularity conditions with full evidence.
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2-degree grid cells colored by M6.0+ probability. Markers show top 10 risk zones. Hover for details.
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RESEARCH ONLY. NOT an operational earthquake prediction system. Does NOT replace USGS, JMA, or any national geological survey warnings. Always follow official guidance. See earthquake.usgs.gov for authoritative data.
Last updateMon, 23 Mar 2026 13:53:47 UTC
Modeleq_coherence_v1_0
Active cells89 cells scored
Events (30 d)2060 M2.5+
Top risk cells by seismic criticality
2-degree grid cells ranked by estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days). Click any row to expand coherence diagnostics.
1 19N, -63E (6 events, Mmax 5.2) 48.0% Very High Conditions: 3/5
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length82.0 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration3.75x
IET delta-AIC30.76
S / Gamma1.316
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-15.95 km
Spatial concentration42.9 km
Corr. length elevatedYES
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
2 -15N, -173E (12 events, Mmax 6.3) 32.0% Very High Conditions: 2/5
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length92.4 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration3.00x
IET delta-AIC21.21
S / Gamma0.980
Days to criticality--
Depth trend8.29 km
Spatial concentration40.9 km
Corr. length elevatedYES
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingno
3 41N, -125E (19 events, Mmax 3.7) 32.0% Very High Conditions: 2/5
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length27.5 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration3.55x
IET delta-AIC16.81
S / Gamma1.072
Days to criticality--
Depth trend1.71 km
Spatial concentration58.0 km
Corr. length elevatedno
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
4 49N, 155E (5 events, Mmax 4.8) 32.0% Very High Conditions: 2/5
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length21.3 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration3.00x
IET delta-AIC15.31
S / Gamma1.415
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-10.14 km
Spatial concentration60.0 km
Corr. length elevatedno
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
5 51N, -179E (20 events, Mmax 4.5) 30.4% Very High Conditions: 3/5
b-value0.668
b-value trend--
Correlation length61.8 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration1.58x
IET delta-AIC61.21
S / Gamma1.076
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-1.87 km
Spatial concentration100.2 km
Corr. length elevatedno
b-value depressedYES
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
6 51N, -177E (23 events, Mmax 4.1) 29.3% Elevated Conditions: 3/5
b-value0.672
b-value trend--
Correlation length63.2 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration1.53x
IET delta-AIC59.83
S / Gamma1.099
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-9.75 km
Spatial concentration150.1 km
Corr. length elevatedno
b-value depressedYES
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
7 61N, -147E (5 events, Mmax 3.2) 29.2% Elevated Conditions: 3/5
b-value1.029
b-value trend--
Correlation length94.8 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration1.82x
IET delta-AIC85.32
S / Gamma1.133
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-21.16 km
Spatial concentration81.3 km
Corr. length elevatedYES
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
8 61N, -149E (13 events, Mmax 3.7) 25.8% Elevated Conditions: 3/5
b-value1.130
b-value trend--
Correlation length80.4 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration1.61x
IET delta-AIC108.13
S / Gamma1.189
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-7.71 km
Spatial concentration70.4 km
Corr. length elevatedYES
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
9 53N, -165E (26 events, Mmax 3.9) 25.4% Elevated Conditions: 2/5
b-value--
b-value trend--
Correlation length60.8 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration2.39x
IET delta-AIC68.90
S / Gamma1.023
Days to criticality--
Depth trend-2.74 km
Spatial concentration76.8 km
Corr. length elevatedno
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
10 61N, -151E (29 events, Mmax 4.0) 25.2% Elevated Conditions: 3/5
b-value1.205
b-value trend--
Correlation length82.1 km
Corr. length trend-- km/month
Rate acceleration1.57x
IET delta-AIC108.09
S / Gamma1.110
Days to criticality--
Depth trend3.34 km
Spatial concentration64.8 km
Corr. length elevatedYES
b-value depressedno
IET Lorentzianno
Rate acceleratingYES
Loading > healingYES
Top risk cell -- coherence diagnostics
19N, -63E -- Coherence fields
48.0%
Estimated M6.0+ probability (30 days)
b-value (GR)--
Correlation length (km)82.0000
Corr. length trend (km/mo)--
Rate acceleration3.7500
IET delta-AIC30.7600
S / Gamma1.3160
tau (coherence field)0.3787
grad(tau)0.1754
Days to criticality--
Singularity analysis
Conditions met3 / 5
Corr. length elevated (>1.5x bg)YES
b-value depressed (<0.85)no
IET Lorentzian (delta-AIC < -2)no
Rate accelerating (>1.5x)YES
Loading > healing (S/Gamma > 1)YES
Cell statistics
Location19.00N, -63.00E
Events (30 days)6
Max magnitudeM5.2
b-value trend--
Depth trend-15.95 km
Model versioneq_coherence_v1_0
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