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Global Tornado Monitor

24-hour tornado formation probability for the world's most active severe convection zones. Ranked by composite STP/SCP indices with full evidence.

Global tornado activity map

Active and monitored severe convection zones worldwide. Hover a marker for details.

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Tornado cell Tornado-prone region Your location
Research Only -- RESEARCH ONLY. NOT an operational warning system. Does NOT replace NWS tornado warnings. Always follow official NWS guidance. See weather.gov for official alerts.
Last updateMon, 23 Mar 2026 01:15:14 UTC
Scoring modelAnalytic coherence model (physics-only, no ML)
Active storms52 storms

Active storms by tornado probability

ProbSevere storm objects scored with coherence field analysis. Ranked by estimated tornado probability. Click any row to expand details.

1 148654 40.42, -84.34 37.8% High CAPE: 1465 | SRH: 41 | MaxLLAz: 0.0130
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear53 kt
MESH0.8 in
Flash rate27 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion16.1 E, 7.1 S m/s
2 148914 40.53, -83.33 32.4% High CAPE: 1616 | SRH: 133 | MaxLLAz: 0.0110
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear55 kt
MESH0.6 in
Flash rate10 /min
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion13.1 E, 8.4 S m/s
3 148711 40.61, -82.37 28.9% Moderate CAPE: 1397 | SRH: 59 | MaxLLAz: 0.0110
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear46 kt
MESH0.3 in
Flash rate7 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion13.6 E, 3.8 S m/s
4 148975 39.62, -86.97 27.2% Moderate CAPE: 1425 | SRH: 163 | MaxLLAz: 0.0090
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear52 kt
MESH0.7 in
Flash rate25 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion12.6 E, 0.0 S m/s
5 148938 41.09, -79.87 25.0% Moderate CAPE: 499 | SRH: 0 | MaxLLAz: 0.0100
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear31 kt
MESH0.1 in
Flash rate1 /min
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion16.8 E, 3.4 S m/s
6 148756 40.53, -82.02 23.5% Moderate CAPE: 1481 | SRH: 124 | MaxLLAz: 0.0090
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear43 kt
MESH0.6 in
Flash rate7 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion15.0 E, 3.5 S m/s
7 148772 39.87, -87.11 22.0% Moderate CAPE: 1413 | SRH: 107 | MaxLLAz: 0.0090
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear54 kt
MESH0.6 in
Flash rate21 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion11.6 E, 0.7 S m/s
8 149030 40.75, -82.12 21.4% Moderate CAPE: 1379 | SRH: 33 | MaxLLAz: 0.0090
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear49 kt
MESH0.2 in
Flash rate3 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion14.4 E, 3.8 S m/s
9 148978 39.06, -88.17 20.8% Moderate CAPE: 1877 | SRH: 173 | MaxLLAz: 0.0070
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear51 kt
MESH1.0 in
Flash rate26 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion13.2 E, 0.4 S m/s
10 148877 40.16, -82.32 18.9% Moderate CAPE: 1352 | SRH: 189 | MaxLLAz: 0.0060
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear52 kt
MESH0.4 in
Flash rate12 /min
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion15.0 E, 2.6 S m/s
11 148741 40.31, -85.16 18.2% Moderate CAPE: 1415 | SRH: 26 | MaxLLAz: 0.0080
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear53 kt
MESH2.2 in
Flash rate24 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion17.9 E, 6.2 S m/s
12 149029 40.79, -76.36 17.6% Moderate CAPE: 596 | SRH: 251 | MaxLLAz: 0.0040
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear49 kt
MESH0.0 in
Flash rate0 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion9.8 E, -1.0 S m/s
13 148828 41.08, -80.42 15.4% Moderate CAPE: 755 | SRH: 0 | MaxLLAz: 0.0070
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear36 kt
MESH0.6 in
Flash rate8 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion17.3 E, 4.1 S m/s
14 148799 40.39, -85.70 14.7% Low CAPE: 1510 | SRH: 128 | MaxLLAz: 0.0060
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear49 kt
MESH0.2 in
Flash rate4 /min
Track length3 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion13.4 E, 2.3 S m/s
15 148951 39.73, -86.53 14.2% Low CAPE: 1465 | SRH: 201 | MaxLLAz: 0.0040
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear51 kt
MESH0.3 in
Flash rate4 /min
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion12.5 E, -4.0 S m/s
16 148932 39.49, -87.51 13.2% Low CAPE: 1533 | SRH: 144 | MaxLLAz: 0.0050
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear50 kt
MESH0.7 in
Flash rate18 /min
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion13.3 E, 6.7 S m/s
17 148916 40.15, -86.69 13.1% Low CAPE: 1567 | SRH: 141 | MaxLLAz: 0.0050
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear51 kt
MESH0.5 in
Flash rate16 /min
Track length2 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion11.2 E, 0.0 S m/s
18 148998 41.09, -79.08 13.0% Low CAPE: 424 | SRH: 9 | MaxLLAz: 0.0060
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear34 kt
MESH0.0 in
Flash rate0 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion9.3 E, -2.0 S m/s
19 149055 38.73, -88.55 13.0% Low CAPE: 1887 | SRH: 139 | MaxLLAz: 0.0050
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear51 kt
MESH0.0 in
Flash rate0 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion14.0 E, 0.0 S m/s
20 148991 40.97, -75.31 12.6% Low CAPE: 109 | SRH: 213 | MaxLLAz: 0.0030
ProbSevere score0
PS tornado score0
Effective bulk shear29 kt
MESH0.0 in
Flash rate0 /min
Track length1 time steps
Scoring tiertier2_analytic
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Motion10.8 E, 0.0 S m/s

Top storm -- coherence diagnostics

Storm 148654 -- Coherence fields

37.8%
Tornado probability
tau0.0000
grad_tau0.0000
torsion0.0000
alignment0.0000
S_field0.0000
Gamma_field0.1500
S / Gamma0.0000
Da (Damkohler)10.2784
E_coh0.0000
Singularity count1.0000

Singularity analysis

Conditions met1 / 5
s_over_gammano
high_gradientno
high_torsionno
positive_alignmentno
high_damkohlerYES

Storm parameters

Location40.4183, -84.3422
CAPE1465 J/kg
0-1km SRH41 m^2/s^2
Eff. bulk shear53 kt
MaxLLAz0.0130 /s
Valid time2026-03-23 01:00:38 UTC
Model versiontornado_storm_v1_0

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