Model registry
Every model is versioned and tracked.
We never run an unregistered model. Every version is pinned, every promotion
is justified, and every retirement is recorded.
Active models
| Model | Hazard | Status | Promoted | AUC | Brier | Architecture |
|---|
| hp-etas-v3.2.1 |
Earthquake |
active |
2026-02-28 |
0.733 |
0.182 |
GBM + Bayesian cal. |
| hp-hurricane-ri-v8.1 |
Hurricane RI |
active |
2026-03-13 |
0.938 |
0.034 |
50-bag logistic + histogram GBT (d3+d4) + Platt cal. |
| hp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 |
Tornado (day-ahead) |
active |
2026-03-05 |
0.644 |
0.231 |
Random forest + Platt cal. |
| hp-tornado-coherence-v1 |
Tornado (storm-object) |
research |
2026-03-15 |
0.894 |
-- |
Coherence Field Theory + Platt cal. (41 features) |
Promotion / retirement history
| Date | Action | Model | Reason |
|---|
| 2026-03-05 | promote | hp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 | +0.02 AUC, improved sharpness on 2025 spring holdout |
| 2026-03-05 | retire | hp-tornado-meso-v1.4.1 | Superseded by hp-tornado-meso-v1.4.2 |
| 2026-03-13 | promote | hp-hurricane-ri-v8.1 | Advisory-time eval: AUC 0.938 avg (0.910–0.957), BSS +0.29, +0.009 delta vs OFCL across 5 holdouts. 65 features, real NOAA SST, Platt calibration. |
| 2026-03-13 | retire | hp-hurricane-ri-v3.2 | Superseded by hp-hurricane-ri-v8.1 — v3.2 used IBTrACS best-track eval (AUC 0.84); v8.1 uses honest advisory-time protocol |
| 2026-03-01 | promote | hp-hurricane-ri-v3.2 | +0.04 AUC, -0.015 Brier vs hp-hurricane-ri-v3.1 on holdout |
| 2026-03-01 | retire | hp-hurricane-ri-v3.1 | Superseded by hp-hurricane-ri-v3.2 |
| 2026-02-28 | promote | hp-etas-v3.2.1 | +0.03 AUC, -0.011 Brier vs hp-etas-v3.1.0 on holdout |
| 2026-02-28 | retire | hp-etas-v3.1.0 | Superseded by hp-etas-v3.2.1 |
| 2026-02-15 | reject | eq-v3.2.0 | Failed calibration floor G4 on validation set (Brier 0.261) |
| 2026-02-10 | reject | to-v1.4.0 | Regression in false alarm rate (+8%) on CONUS spring holdout |
Retired models
| Model | Hazard | Retired | Final AUC | Final Brier | Forecasts issued |
|---|
| hp-etas-v3.1.0 | Earthquake | 2026-02-28 | 0.78 | 0.153 | 2,841 |
| hp-hurricane-ri-v3.2 | Hurricane RI | 2026-03-13 | 0.84 | 0.168 | 1,891 |
| hp-hurricane-ri-v3.1 | Hurricane RI | 2026-03-01 | 0.80 | 0.183 | 1,247 |
| hp-tornado-meso-v1.4.1 | Tornado | 2026-03-05 | 0.75 | 0.124 | 3,102 |
Promotion policy
Requirements for promotion
- Statistically significant improvement on holdout set (AUC or Brier)
- No regression in calibration or false alarm rate
- Passes all gate checks (G0–G12) on validation corpus
- Training data cutoff documented and frozen
- Feature set and architecture documented in registry
Rejection criteria
- Brier score above calibration floor threshold (0.25)
- False alarm rate regression exceeding 5%
- Calibration error exceeding 8% in any bin
- Inability to produce replay-verified deterministic outputs
- Missing or incomplete feature documentation
HazardPulse Classic